2026 US Midterm Election Prediction - Senate Splits 50-50
The “Prediction Markets” are trying to persuade/convince people that the Congressional elections next week will result in Ds flipping both houses. Let’s look at the Senate math.
The 2026 midterm elections are (FINALLY!) almost here, most of us whom can’t stand to talk about electoralism can’t wait until the TV ads and voter shaming can stop (for the next 2 years, at least). The USA is, once again, collectively choosing to light ANOTHER $2B plus on fire to basically end up not far from where we started. Seems like an awful amount of money, work and effort to not make many changes.
For several years, my position has been, and will continue to be, #NoneOfTheAbove.
That doesn’t mean I can’t have an opinion based on what I’m seeing…
I was inspired to publish this as an article after I started answering my friend Michael Ginsburg, who after Lula’s victory over Bolsonaro was announced Sunday night, opined on Substack Notes about his prediction that:
“the pendulum is going to swing now back from the ‘far right’ to the ‘far left.‘ The trend in the US is unmistakable…
I predict that following Trump losing control of BOTH houses of Congress, his administration will become even MORE deranged than what it currently is, especially if the new Congress makes any attempts to impeach him yet again.
Either way, this is the FINAL POTUS. There will NEVER be a 48.
Next stop: “Technate of America”, instituted most likely following a “false flag” attack.“
I pushed back on that analysis, because I don’t see the likelihood that the Democrats flip the Senate. I do think they will likely win the House.
Analyzing the “Toss-Ups”
Let’s look at the actual races to determine where the seat flips are coming from. In order for Democrats to take the currently 53-47 Republican majority Senate, they would have to flip 4 Republican seats. There are just 35 out of 100 Senate seats up for election in 2026, 22 of which were held by Republicans.
These are the “Toss-Up” Races. I grabbed a lot of the info used here from the 270toWin.com website, as well as the Real Clear Politics site for aggregate polling.
Am I crazy? What do you see? Where am I spot-on, and where are I completely off base? Sound off in the comments or share it on Notes/social media!
Sherrod Brown (D) vs John Husted (R). It seems ex-senator Sherrod Brown may win the Ohio special election for JD Vance’s seat. That’s one. Vivek Ramaswamy being a corporatist, Thiel-aligned Republican candidate for Governor doesn’t help the Republican Husted in this case. Husted has been keeping the seat warm until the special election, appointed by Governor Mike DeWine, so he technically runs as the incumbent. Brown lost his seat in 2024 to Republican Bernie Moreno.
Predicted Winner: Sherrod Brown, Seat flips from R to D
2. NORTH CAROLINA
Roy Cooper (D) vs Michael Whatley (R). Thom Tillis, the incumbent Republican, announced he will not seek reelection, and it seems that ex-Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, will take this open seat.
Predicted Winner: Roy Cooper, Seat flips from R to D
3. ALASKA
A 4-Way Jungle-Election. It would be surprising to see the Alaska seat flip Blue, but there are literally 2 men BOTH named Dan Sullivan BOTH running as Republicans (one is the incumbent), which will confuse the issue and could split his vote. This is hilarious and proves we live in idiocracy.
Predicted Winner: Mary Petola, Seat flips from R to D
4. MICHIGAN
Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs Mike Rogers (R). Michigan, currently blue via retiring Gary Peters, could possibly flip red because Abdul El-Sayed has been demonized by corporate media. We’ll see how effective corporate media is in convincing voters to choose Rogers, whom it would clearly prefer. Rogers first swore off AIPAC money, then decided to embrace it. El-Sayed beat the preferred establishment candidate, Haley Stevens, in the primary.
Predicted Winner: Abdul El-Sayed, retains D seat
5. MAINE
Susan Collins (R) vs Troy Jackson (D). Susan Collins in Maine, the Republican incumbent, is vulnerable, but they’ve always found a way to get her over the finish line before. Throw in that the Ds had that whole Graham Platner debacle & put in a union logger and former State Senate President in Troy Jackson. Jackson espouses progressive values (Medicare for All, tax billionaires, stop funding genocide in Gaza, dismantle & abolish ICE) - with ZERO plan on how to make that happen as 1 of 100 Senators. When faced with a choice between a Democrat who advocates for these policies and a Republican, historically people have chosen the Republican every time. The Zionists already have Jackson backtracking on comments about Israel’s genocide and the Democrats sent a bunch of pro-Israel consultants to “push him to soften his positions” on Israel.
Predicted Winner: Susan Collins, retains R seat
6. IOWA
Ashley Hinson (R) vs John Turek (D). Iowa’s open seat is not going blue. Tom Harkin in 2009 was the last Democrat Iowa sent to the Senate. Democrats have not done nearly enough to EARN a flip.
Predicted Winner: Ashley Hinson, retains R seat
7. KANSAS
Roger Marshall (R) vs Adam Hamilton (D). Kansas has an incumbent R (Roger Marshall) up by about 20 points and will not flip blue either. Not even much of a toss-up. They have not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932
Predicted Winner: Roger Marshall, retains, R seat
8. FLORIDA
Ashley Moody (R) vs Angie Nixon (D). Florida is a pretty red seat and the Rs have a good chance to retain Rubio’s seat in a Special Election with the person they appointed to replace him. Floridians have not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 2013. Angie Nixon, the Democrat, has played a centrist role of “progressive who embraces support from former President Obama.” Not sure how that will play out in a state that was not a big fan of Obama’s. The guy running for Governor in FL, David Jolly, used to be a Republican & appears to be a DINO (Democrat In Name Only).
Predicted Winner: Ashley Moody, retains R seat
9. TEXAS
James Talarico (D) vs Ken Paxton (R). There has not been a Democrat win in a statewide election THIS CENTURY. That does not bode well for Talarico vs Paxton. Paxton defeated the Republican incumbent, John Cornyn, in the primary.
Predicted Winner: Ken Paxton, retains R seat
Nebraska (R), Georgia (D), Mississippi (R), Minnesota (D), New Hampshire (D) will likely maintain the same party.
BONUS: SOUTH CAROLINA
The fact that Lindsey Graham’s SISTER has an 80% chance of retaining his seat based on name recognition alone, and is not considered “vulnerable,” is just disgraceful. The Democrats couldn’t find ANYONE in South Carolina that could have beaten her? It shows how weak their bench really is.
By my tally, that’s two Democratic flips (Ohio, North Carolina). Possibly, Alaska would make three & maybe Texas or Maine could make as many as five. Chances are that ALL 5 will not go D. This assumes that Rogers does not win in Michigan, too.
Based on my predictions, the Senate will result in a 50-50 split, with the VP breaking the tie.
Even if the Democrats somehow managed to win both Maine and Texas, retain Michigan & win North Carolina, Ohio and Alaska, taking the Senate by 2 votes, a majority Dem Congress would be similar in effectiveness. Why? because Trump would just veto everything passed by Congress, and they don’t have the 2/3 vote to override the veto. No mater what, it’s not enough to get anything passed. Not enough to impeach & convict Trump.
Basically, for Democrats to eke out a 1- or 2-person “advantage,” EVERYTHING has to go their way. This would likely result in Chuck Schumer being Senate Majority leader again. We would also likely see the “rotating villain” return, with John Fetterman playing the role of Joe Manchin & Kirsten Sinema - the previous rotating villains for the Democrats when they held the Senate.
What this also means is that by next Tuesday, interests within the US will collectively have lit over $2B on fire to possibly change out one set of Zionist duopolists for a slightly differentmix of Zionist duopolists, with a couple of potential “rebels” in there (El-Sayed, Talarico) whom the party would grind into submission in short time.
Remember, kids: “this is the most important election EVER! (unless you don’t live in a state with a toss-up)”
Polymarket Is WAY OFF
I also want to note the significant difference of the “Prediction Market” analysis, the 270toWin site incorporated Polymarket sentiment for each race, indicating the %age of money betting on a specific candidate or party to win.
Polymarket is somehow predicting a 66% chance the Democrats take the SENATE. This is crazy talk, considering that even a 50-50 split would be considered a Republican win.
Full disclosure: I can’t stand Polymarket and these “predictive markets” replacing traditional polling (which I never trusted either).
Clearly, there’s been a push by corporate media to legitimize prediction markets, based largely on Polymarket laying out the cash to sponsor their content & coverage. There has been a seeping-in of perceived legitimacy amongst portion of the public that isn’t paying close attention to the nature of that relationship. Branding works.
I talked about it back in March here, when members of the Trump Admin were betting on the Iran invasion:
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(See my read-throughs of the Whitney Webb-Mark Goodwin article on UnlimitedHangout.com that laid out why Polymarket is beyond problematic and has deep ties to the intelligence community, stitched into one massive 2 1/2 hour reading below.)
Am I crazy? What do you see? Where am I spot-on, and where are I completely off-base? Sound off in the comments or share it on Notes / share on social media!
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Excellent analysis. If things go as per your analysis, then all the predictions many of us have been making will be out, and with the VP having the say in a split means one thing, trump will be secure (only just). As far as things changing, well having D in control would have meant little change in direction.
Excellent analysis. If things go as per your analysis, then all the predictions many of us have been making will be out, and with the VP having the say in a split means one thing, trump will be secure (only just). As far as things changing, well having D in control would have meant little change in direction.